A New Era for Transatlantic Trade
The global trade environment is undergoing its most significant transformation in decades. Shifting geopolitical alliances, evolving tariff policies, supply chain reconfigurations, and new regulatory frameworks are fundamentally changing how companies operate across borders. This study examines the implications of these shifts for businesses operating in the US-European corridor.
Our analysis draws on trade data from 2020-2026, interviews with 60 corporate executives managing transatlantic operations, and policy analysis from trade experts in Washington, Brussels, and Berlin. The findings reveal both significant challenges and substantial opportunities for companies with the strategic agility to adapt.
Key Trends
Supply chain resilience has replaced cost optimization as the primary driver of corporate location decisions. European manufacturers are accelerating nearshoring strategies, establishing or expanding US production to reduce tariff exposure and supply chain vulnerability. US technology companies are deepening their European presence to comply with evolving digital sovereignty requirements.
The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is creating new compliance requirements for US exporters to Europe, while simultaneously opening opportunities for companies offering low-carbon alternatives. Our analysis estimates that CBAM compliance will affect approximately $45 billion in US exports to the EU by 2027.
Strategic Implications
Companies that proactively adapt their transatlantic structures to the evolving trade environment can turn regulatory complexity into competitive advantage. The study outlines five strategic playbooks for different company profiles, from SMEs making their first cross-border move to multinational corporations optimizing existing operations.